Figma has 690,000 paying customers. Only 15,218 of them are worth a sales call.

Hypothesis

Single-seat and two-seat paid teams that are already collaborating with unlicensed people will add a seat at a materially higher rate if prompted at the moment the friction appears, rather than in a monthly newsletter.

The signal

A file owned by the team is opened by someone without an editor seat, or an invite has been pending for more than seven days. The team has demonstrated the need. Nobody has to be persuaded of anything.

The angle

Remove the friction, do not sell the seat. “Three people commented on your file this week and cannot edit it.” The value is self-evident once it is stated as an observation.

Guardrail

Cap at one prompt per team per fortnight, and suppress entirely if the account is inside a renewal window being handled by sales. Nothing erodes trust with a sales team faster than marketing messaging their pipeline.

Success metric

Seat additions per eligible team within 30 days, treated versus hold-out, plus revenue per team as the confirming measure.

• Trigger
  Unlicensed collaborator detectedOr an invite pending seven days or more
• Same day
  In-product promptShown to the admin, in context, on the file itself
• Day 3
  Email to the adminWho is blocked, and the one-click way to unblock them
• Day 10
  StopNo third message. The signal has either converted or it has not
• Converts
  Seat addedExit expansion, enter the multi-seat retention track

Hypothesis

New Pro teams that reach two active editors within 14 days of converting will renew at a materially higher rate than those that stay single-seat, and the invite can be influenced by messaging.

Why now

New Pro team conversions grew more than 150% year on year. The newest and most fragile cohort in the company is also the largest it has ever been, so a small percentage improvement here is worth more this year than it would have been last year.

The angle

The onboarding goal is not feature education, it is the second human. One teammate in the workspace changes the product from a subscription into shared infrastructure.

What I would check first

Renewal rate of single-seat teams versus two-plus-seat teams at first renewal. If the gap is small, this hypothesis is wrong and I would move budget to journey one.

Success metric

Share of new paid teams with two or more active editors at day 14, then first-renewal rate for that cohort against hold-out.

Hypothesis

Seat-level inactivity predicts downgrade at renewal, and a team shown its own unused seats 60 days early will either reactivate those people or downgrade voluntarily. Both outcomes beat a surprise cancellation.

Why it is uncomfortable

This journey can reduce revenue in the short term, because some teams will right-size instead of churning entirely. That is the correct trade, and it is the kind of thing worth arguing for with a number attached rather than avoiding.

The angle

Sent to the admin as an account hygiene summary, not a warning. “Four of your nine seats have not been used in 30 days.” Useful information framed as a service.

Success metric

Gross revenue retention in the treated long-tail cohort, plus voluntary downgrade rate as a deliberately monitored side effect.

The segment, as I would write it:

-- Long-tail paid teams showing expansion signal or contraction risk
WITH seat_use AS (
  SELECT t.team_id,
         COUNT(DISTINCT s.seat_id)                                  AS seats_paid,
         COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN e.last_edit_at > DATE_SUB(CURRENT_DATE, 30)
                              THEN s.seat_id END)                  AS seats_active_30d
  FROM   dim_team t
  JOIN   dim_seat s USING (team_id)
  LEFT JOIN fact_editor_activity e USING (seat_id)
  GROUP BY t.team_id
),
unlicensed AS (
  SELECT team_id,
         COUNT(DISTINCT collaborator_id) AS unlicensed_collaborators
  FROM   fact_file_access
  WHERE  has_editor_seat = FALSE
    AND  accessed_at > DATE_SUB(CURRENT_DATE, 14)
  GROUP BY team_id
)
SELECT t.team_id, t.plan, t.arr_usd,
       u.seats_paid, u.seats_active_30d,
       COALESCE(x.unlicensed_collaborators, 0) AS blocked_people,
       CASE
         WHEN COALESCE(x.unlicensed_collaborators,0) >= 2
              AND u.seats_paid <= 3                      THEN 'EXPANSION_SIGNAL'
         WHEN u.seats_active_30d < u.seats_paid * 0.6      THEN 'CONTRACTION_RISK'
         ELSE 'STEADY'
       END AS lifecycle_state
FROM   dim_team t
JOIN   seat_use u  USING (team_id)
LEFT JOIN unlicensed x USING (team_id)
WHERE  t.is_paid = TRUE
  AND  t.arr_usd < 10000          -- the tail sales cannot reach
ORDER BY t.arr_usd DESC;